2024 NHL Draft Lottery Odds: Which teams have the best chance to select Macklin Celebrini?

      Who has the best odds of landing the top pick in 2024?

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      It’s that time of the year again.

      If you’re here for the first time, welcome! Your favorite NHL team is lousy. If you’ve been here before, at least you’re building toward the future… right?

      When the Chicago Blackhawks landed Connor Bedard, it had franchise-changing impacts already being witnessed in the Windy City. This year, the prize is Macklin Celebrini, a Boston University standout having one of the best college freshman seasons we’ve seen in the modern era. He’s not at Bedard level, but he’s a player many scouts believe you can build a team around.

      Teams can only win the lottery twice in a five-year span. Chicago, for example, could do it one more time before they’re no longer eligible. The team with the best odds won it the two years prior, with Montreal taking Juraj Slafkovsky in 2022 and Buffalo selecting Owen Power in 2021. It’s been rare to see a team with minuscule odds win it all, but it happened in 2020 when the New York Rangers won the lottery with the 14th-best odds in 2020 and took Alexis Lafreniere.

      Last year, the Anaheim Ducks had the best odds of selecting first overall, with a 25.5 chance at the lottery. Instead, the Chicago Blackhawks – sitting third at 11.5 – earned the honor of drafting Bedard with the first pick, with Columbus falling from second to third. With the San Jose Sharks finishing fourth last year, the bottom-four teams all look destined to fight for the first pick again in 2024 when the draft heads to Vegas.

      Some key dates to know:

      • NHL Draft Lottery: TBD
      • NHL Draft Combine: June 2-8 at the LECOM Harborcenter in Buffalo, N.Y.
      • NHL Draft: June 28-29 at the Sphere in Las Vegas, NV.

      Slackin’ for Macklin

      2024 NHL Draft Lottery Odds as of games on Feb. 28

      RankTeamRecordPts. %Lottery Odds
      1Chicago Blackhawks15-39-5.29725.5%
      2San Jose Sharks15-37-5.30713.5%
      3Anaheim Ducks20-35-3.37111.5%
      4Columbus Blue Jackets19-29-10.4149.5%
      5Arizona Coyotes23-30-5.4408.5%
      6Montreal Canadiens23-28-8.4587.5%
      7Ottawa Senators25-29-3.4656.5%
      8Buffalo Sabres27-28-4.4926.0%
      9Minnesota Wild28-25-6.5255.0%
      10Seattle Kraken25-22-11.5263.5%
      11Calgary Flames29-25-5.5343.0%

      As a result of Draft Lottery rule changes made effective in 2021, a team may only move up a maximum of 10 spots from their finishing position. That means only the bottom 11 teams have a shot at the No. 1 overall pick.

      Therefore, instead of the published odds, which indicate the 32nd-place team has an 18.5 percent chance – which was accurate when all 16 non-playoff teams had a crack at the No. 1 pick – the additional percentages from those five clubs are effectively applied to the 32nd place finisher.



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